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2023 DZ2
#1
Just as we no longer have to worry about an impact of 2023 DW, we have this rock to watch. Looks like a possible 10th magnitude pass at a distance of 180,894Km on March 25th 19:43UT (daylight). Moving 9.3'/min

Really far better placed for southern observations. Sorry about the weather down under. For us northern folks, looks like 12th mag near midnight on the 24th moving 1.5'/min. At least there is no moon to cause issues.
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#2
I was getting ready to post this:

CNEOS predicts that the newly discovered NEO 2023 DZ2 will make a close approach on 2023-Mar-25 19:31 ±  01:03 UT at a distance of 0.00116 AU. H=23.7 magnitude, V relative=7.79 km/sec, 'Rarity' =3, Condition Code = 8.  It's a medium sized object 48 m - 110 m in dimeter. This MP was discovered at La Palma on 2023-02-27. La Palma made observations from February 27 to March 1 then there were no observations reported until March 16 & 17. The Earth Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) is 7.65418E-5 AU. The inclination is only 0.08°.

Using MPC's elements for March 17 2023 00:00 UT, ST4v predicts that this MP will reach a peak brightness of 9.7 magnitude on March 25 at 1400 EDT when the NEO will be moving through Virgo at 466"/min at 191.9 k km distance in daylight and below the horizon as seen from Columbus, Ohio.. Close approach (to the nearest hour) is predicted to occur on March 25 at 1600 EDT when the NEO will be moving through Virgo at 517"/min, 181.8 k km distant and 10.1 magnitude, still in daylight and below the horizon as seen from Columbus. On the evening of March 24 the NEO is already predicted to be brighter than 14 magnitude as it moves through Cancer.

You'll need to download the latest elements for this object as the orbit is being refined. A plot of the object's path shows little loops in the position each day. I think that this is caused by the earth's rotation causing the apparent position of the NEO to shift relative to the background stars.  It's still noticable with the NEO 0.03 AU distant.

The close approach is best visible from Australia/New Zealand, but the NEO should be visible for some time from both hemispheres as it's going to pass close to Regulus and Spica. This event will be visible from Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, etc as well. Are there any SkyTools users from those countries?

Good hunting.

Phil S.

There's still an hour's uncertainty in the time of close approach, so more refining to be done. The arc of observation is 18 days, but it's Feb 28- Mar 1 & Mar 16 -17 so far. There's still a week to go.
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#3
Thanks BMD and Phil - this looks like a good one!

Cheers

Dennis
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#4
I was somewhat mifted by the lack of obs beginning the 6-8th of March. Elongation was good. Moon had moved away although was full. I'm just assuming the full moon was the culprit as I know nothing on deep imaging with large scopes.
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#5
This NEO was apparently observed on 2023 Jan 14 at Pan-STARRS 2, Haleakala, at Kitt Peak on Jan 28 and at Mt. Lemmon on Feb 11, increasing the observation arc to 63 days per CNEOS and improving the Condition Code to 7. The close approach time is now  2023-Mar-25 19:52 ± 00:18 UT and H=23.9 magnitude,  44 m - 99 m diameter.

I'll rerun the ST4v ephemeris calculations tomorrow hoping for additional improvements to the orbital accuracy.

Phil S.
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#6
And the close pass on the 25th is 0.00116AU. So now the impact chances have dropped off the chart for 2026.
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#7
Here's an update on this close approach. I think it's going to be the brightest one that's occurred in the last several years. 'Rarity' 3 events don't occur very frequently.

As of March 19, CNEOS predicts that the newly discovered NEO 2023 DZ2 will make a close approach on 2023-Mar-25 19:52 ± 00:07 UT at a distance of 0.00117 AU. H=23.9 magnitude, V relative=7.78 km/sec, 'Rarity' =3, Condition Code = 6.  It's a medium sized object 43 m - 97 m in dimeter. This MP was discovered at La Palma on 2023-02-27. La Palma made observations from February 27 to March 1 then there were no observations reported until March 16 & 17. The observation arc was extended to 64 days using observations as early as Jan 14 as noted above. The Earth Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) is 4.77684E-5 AU. The inclination is only 0.08°.

Using MPC's elements for March 19 2023 00:00 UT, ST4v now predicts that this MP will reach a peak brightness of 9.8 magnitude on March 25 at 1400 EDT (to the nearest hour) when the NEO will be moving through Virgo at 464"/min at 192.4 k km distance in daylight and below the horizon as seen from Columbus, Ohio.. Close approach (to the nearest hour) is predicted to occur on March 25 at 1600 EDT when the NEO will be moving through Virgo at 516"/min, 181.8 k km distant and 10.2 magnitude, still in daylight and below the horizon as seen from Columbus. On the evening of March 24 the NEO is already predicted to be brighter than 14 magnitude as it moves through Cancer and brighter than 14 magnitude on the morning of March 26 as it moves through Sagittarius. It's not a one night event.

You'll need to download the latest elements for this object as the orbit is being refined. A plot of the object's path shows little loops in the position each day. I think that this is caused by the earth's rotation causing the apparent position of the NEO to shift relative to the background stars.  It's still noticable with the NEO 0.03 AU distant, but it will really start moving fast in the next few days. Here's an Interactive Atlas chart showing the predicted position of the NEO for the next week as seen from Columbus, Ohio:     

The close approach is best visible from Australia/New Zealand, but the NEO should be visible for some time from both hemispheres as it's going to pass close to Regulus and Spica.

Good hunting.

Phil S.
Phil S.
ST4 (4.0j, R22) Bundle
WIN 10 Pro, R9 3900X, 64 GB RAM, RTX 2070, 4k monitor
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#8
I had to make a total of 5 full screen captures to illustrate the full path in detail of this rock from March 18 00:00CDT to March 25 12:00CDT. A path length of over 63°.
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#9
BMD,

Here's the reposted IA chart:     

Phil S.
Phil S.
ST4 (4.0j, R22) Bundle
WIN 10 Pro, R9 3900X, 64 GB RAM, RTX 2070, 4k monitor
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#10
Those little arcs/bumps are much more prevalent at 30°N. Especially near 3/18/2023 14:00 - 22:00CDT. Cool appearance of our motion on the planet.
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