Fast mover 2021 YK

[PMSchu]

The Apollo class MP 2021 YK is predicted to reach 16.1 Mag on the night of 2022 Jan 1-2. Here's the predicted path as seen from the Houston TX area: [attachment=2167]

From this location the path crosses NGC 891 between 21:43 to 21:44 CST.

Hope you have good weather BMD. The orbit certainty is 9 so there may be refinements in the next few days.

Phil S.

[ledge1962]

I may have to move to Texas, you seem to have a lot of good views

[PMSchu]

I don't think anyone in the northern hemisphere is having much clear weather either. Certainly not here in Ohio.

Phil S.

[bigmasterdrago]

Thanks Phil. I ran that rock yesterday morning when I noticed the close Lunar Distance. Looks like for me, it will be high up, moving very fast and in dark skies. Could be as bright as mid 14s. Then (4am local Jan. 2) it drops low into twilight when it really starts whizzing (4'/m-7'/m)! Still out of reach in my 13" as 14th magnitude is my stellar limit from my driveway. I'm going to put some of my friends onto it with the photo rigs. Although it looks like the time uncertainty is +/-51 minutes.

I ran it again just now using the latest JPL elements and from my yard 55 miles north of H-Town, the rock is at 2h22m25s +41°35'26" at 01:21:00CST which puts it 39' south of NGC891 in the NW 26° up. Viewing from Houston moves the rock location ~6" farther south.

An interesting discovery is that when using the latest MPC elements, the rock is plotted 3.56° farther WNW than the JPL elements. I often find this whenever the uncertainty is high. Now showing 7 with 31 observations over a two day arc.

[bigmasterdrago]

I checked this morning and there are no new elements or observation for this fast moving rock. And with a +/-51 minute error and the state of Texas under a full deck of clouds, not going to happen. I did alert my imaging buds in west Texas in case the get a clearing.

[bigmasterdrago]

Rechecked just now and the arc length is now 5 days with an error of just +/- 2 minutes. My guys in west Texas now are looking at a good possibility weather wise. Still cloudy in Houston.

[bigmasterdrago]

I'm not seeing that Horizons/JPL has updated their elements yet. They are still using the old epoch date of December 28, not the 31st.

Using the osculating element set for 21:00CST tonight (03:00UT Jan 2), I get a plot that matches with that from Horizons at 9pm CST at my house.

[bigmasterdrago]

My two imaging buddies in w Texas are geared up as the clouds have moved out. Not so good in SE Texas. Maybe one of them will capture it appulsing NGC891 (thanks Phil on that note). Looks like ~00:23 CST for them.

   

[ledge1962]

We have similar issues with high layers of cloud here in NZ. Very depressing...

[bigmasterdrago]

It appears that late yesterday evening, they updated again with now 41 observation over 6 days and an uncertainty value of 6 now. The elements appeared to not have changed at least in the MPC or JPL files.