Looking Ahead

[bigmasterdrago]

Hey Phil, I was looking at some future predictions of rock passes and thought I would mention 2019 XS on November 9. It may be bright enough (H=24, LD=2.5-3), it's well placed (high in south b4 midnight CDT) and moonset is ~10pm. Moving out of Eridanus into Cetus at ~1'/min. It will remain high until 4am on 10th. The position error window appears to be <1min.

It's actually closest to me on Nov. 8, 21:47CDT but below horizon. Predictions indicate it's brightest for me ~06:47CDT Nov 9 but 17° below my horizon.

I've looked at a few others NEOs (2015 TQ21 5 day error box, 2021 RR5 faint, & 2021 RQ9 faint).

[PMSchu]

Hi BMD,

Thanks for the info. I don't normally look 2 months ahead & our November weather is some of the worst.

Currently my ST4 is broken & I haven't been able to use it much. Greg is trying to figure out what went wrong. I suspect it may be due to the lost MP 2010 CA261 that I found using the DBPS last month. ST4 started showing some weird stuff in the Observing Lists that I made for the close approaching MPs.

Phil S.

[bigmasterdrago]

Broken? Still curious where the elements for 2010 CA261 were fetched. The very only place I've found them is in a downloaded Lowell file with an epoch date of 2021 Oct 13 currently. The epoch I have currently in ST4 is Aug 22. So I've edited the elements or simply reprocessed the same Lowell elements. A single rock MPC search does not have a match.

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Since there is no way to import hourly osculating elements using Horizons into ST for 2010 CA261 (no matching body found at Horizons), I've found that the positions (ephemeris) for tonight and tomorrow is vastly different from a gravitational simulator I've used.

ST4 Ephem tonight
   

AG4 ephem tonight
   

I think that the epoch date of Oct 13 is just too far away for ST. In fact, ST will not even produce an ephemeris for tonight after midnight because it believes the rock is too low to observe.

Sorry it's broken. I'm sure between you and Technoking, it will get fixed soon.

[PMSchu]

Hi BMD,

I initially found out about 2010 CA261 after I downloaded some MPC minor planet data & used ST4v's DBPS to search for MP's <0.05 AU distant. It was either the full MPC data (Epoch 2021 July 5) or the NEAs at Today's Epoch MP data for several dates in late August, or both. I was able to download elements for this object multiple times. I made log entries in the Observing Lists (OL) to keep track of it. The epoch of the elements was updated several times, then I started to get the 'No Match' response from MPC around the last week of August. Someone must have caught on that something was wrong & it got classified as 'Lost'. Did you say that you contacted someone at Lowell or the MPC about 2010 CA261 around that time?

I'd created a Log entry for it & gave it 5 stars in the NP because it was predicted to be so bright. After one update in late August, it wasn't listed, but a new MP 2009 FU appeared in a new OL that also had 5 stars, but was ~24 mag. Couldn't be the same object, but somehow it got into the list.

ST4v still seems to work OK, but ST4i won't list my old Target Lists (TL) correctly, so that's what's broken. Even a restore isn't able to correct the issue. Definitely a job for the Technoking.

Phil S.