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Possible Collision with 2024 YR4 in 2032 - Printable Version

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Possible Collision with 2024 YR4 in 2032 - PMSchu - 2025-02-03

CNEOS predicts that the recently discovered NEO, 2024 YR4, may collide with earth on 2032-Dec-22 09:02±20:53  UT. Here's an article describing the situation:

https://phys.org/news/2025-01-astronomers-spied-asteroid-earth.html

Here's hoping that it misses,

Phil S.

RE: Possible Collision with 2024 YR4 in 2032 - boringgeneral - 2025-02-24

(2025-02-03, 10:05 PM)PMSchu Wrote: CNEOS predicts that the recently discovered NEO, 2024 YR4, may collide with earth on 2032-Dec-22 09:02±20:53  UT. Here's an article describing the situation:

https://phys.org/news/2025-01-astronomers-spied-asteroid-earth.htmlscratch geometry dash

Here's hoping that it misses,

Phil S.
the impact risk of 2024 YR4 in 2032 is very low and decreasing with new observations. Likely to be ruled out completely.

RE: Possible Collision with 2024 YR4 in 2032 - PMSchu - 2025-02-24

You're correct. At the time of the original post the probability of a collision was ~1/70, so unlikely.

As of 2025 Feb 24, CNEOS lists the following prediction for the close approach of 2024 YR4: 2032-Dec-22 08:30 ±  04:10 UT at a nominal distance of 0.00182 AU, a minimum distance of 0.00049 AU and a maximum distance of 0.00315 AU with a V Relative=13.31 km/sec. This is for a 61 day observation arc with a Condition Code=4 and an Earth MOID=0.00282823 AU. The solution date was 2025-Feb-24 08:05:16 PST.

The minimum distance of 0.00049 AU~46,000 miles so it looks like we should be OK.

Phil S.

RE: Possible Collision with 2024 YR4 in 2032 - PMSchu - 2025-02-27

Here's another article about the NEO 2024 YR4: https://apnews.com/article/asteroid-2024-yr4-nasa-esa-cce39c01ab94ac1edae00024dc35169c

It looks like we're in the clear.

Phil S.